Virginia House Race Tightens: Kiggans’ Lead Narrows to 1 Point, Poll Shows

The race for Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District is heating up, with a new poll revealing a tightening contest between Republican incumbent Rep. Jen Kiggans and Democratic challenger Missy Cotter Smasal. The poll, conducted by the Wason Center for Civic Leadership at Christopher Newport University, found Kiggans leading with 46% support among registered likely voters, while Smasal garnered 45%. This represents a significant narrowing of the gap since a similar poll in mid-September, where Kiggans held a 5-point lead. The margin of error for both polls is 3.9 percentage points.

The district, which encompasses Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Suffolk, Isle of Wight, and Virginia’s eastern shore, is considered one of the most competitive in the state. Both Republicans and Democrats see it as crucial for securing control of the House for the next two years. The district is home to the largest naval base in the country, with a significant active duty and retired military population. Both candidates are veterans, and the poll found Kiggans is trusted more by voters on handling military and veteran issues (46% vs. 42% for Smasal). However, the poll indicates that Smasal is trusted more (49% vs. 35%) on handling “reproductive rights.”

The district has swung back and forth between red and blue in the past six years, making it a true battleground. While Fox News Power Rankings currently lean the district red for this election cycle, the tight race suggests a highly unpredictable outcome. The poll also found that Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow two-point lead over former President Donald Trump among likely voters in the district. This is significant considering the district’s lean towards Republicans after redistricting following the 2020 census. Notably, President Biden won the district by two points in 2020. The poll results indicate that the district’s political landscape remains fluid and subject to shifts in voter sentiment and turnout.

The Wason Center’s research director, Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo, told the Washington Post that Harris’ performance in the state could significantly impact Smasal’s chances. High Democratic turnout and suppressed Republican turnout could favor Smasal, while strong support for Harris statewide could create an advantage for the Democratic challenger in the district.

Despite Harris’ lead, it’s worth noting that her advantage has shrunk since September, when the same poll showed her ahead by 11 points. This suggests a potential trend towards a more competitive race for Harris in Virginia. The district’s political dynamics are further complicated by the outcome of the 2021 gubernatorial election, where Republican Glenn Youngkin won the district by 11 points. This victory was followed by Kiggans’ victory over Democratic incumbent Rep. Elaine Luria by 3 points in the 2022 election. The new poll also shows incumbent Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine leading his Republican challenger Hung Cao by seven points among likely voters in the district. This further reinforces the perception of a tight race in the district, with both parties engaging in intense efforts to mobilize their base and persuade undecided voters.

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