The 2024 general elections painted an intricate tapestry of voter sentiment and political dynamics, leaving the BJP stranded for a majority. While the party garnered positive assessments for initiatives like the Ram Mandir construction, Hindutva promotion, and India’s global image, widespread economic concerns such as inflation and unemployment posed substantial challenges.
The CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey 2024 revealed a general satisfaction with the Union government’s performance, albeit a decline from 2019. Approximately six in 10 respondents reported being fully or partly satisfied with the Modi government, a six percentage point reduction compared to the previous election. The data also indicated a seven percentage point increase in overall dissatisfaction since 2019, suggesting the BJP’s difficulty in maintaining voter satisfaction.
The survey explored the initiatives that resonated most with voters regarding the Modi government’s performance. The construction of the Ram Mandir emerged as the most favored, appreciated by over two out of ten respondents. This was followed by efforts in poverty reduction, development initiatives, and employment creation, each receiving 6% of the votes. Notably, one in 10 voters cited the promotion of Hindutva and the elevation of India’s international standing as the government’s most commendable achievements.
However, it is crucial to recognize that satisfaction with religious and cultural initiatives rather than core economic performance may have cost the party. While 54% of those who appreciated the Ram Mandir construction voted for the BJP, only 41% of those who favored poverty reduction initiatives supported the party, indicating a preference for the party’s economic policies.
The data also highlighted the aspects of the government’s work that were most disliked by voters, contributing to the increase in dissatisfaction since 2019. Nearly a quarter of the electorate cited price rise and unemployment as the most disliked aspects of the Union government’s performance, with poverty also being a significant concern. Notably, economic issues and cultural-religious issues had opposing impacts on the government’s support.
During the 2019 CSDS-Lokniti post-poll study, unemployment and price rise were cited as important voting issues by 11% and 4% of respondents, respectively. These issues persisted and were mentioned in the 2024 survey, with higher levels of dissatisfaction. According to the pre-poll survey conducted by CSDS-Lokniti, 27% of voters identified unemployment as a significant issue, compared to just 11% in 2019. Similarly, concerns about price rise surged from 4% in 2019 to 23% in 2024. These heightened economic concerns overshadowed the government’s projected achievements and greatly impacted voter sentiment.
Additionally, 8% of respondents reported increasing communalism/religious conflicts as the most disliked aspect of the government’s performance, further shaping voter behavior. Though the BJP retained some support from voters who identified rising prices, unemployment, and poverty as their primary concerns, the combined opposition effectively attracted a significant portion of these voters, thereby denting the BJP’s support.
Overall, the data on satisfaction levels with the ruling government and its impact on voting patterns shows that fully satisfied voters predominantly supported the BJP and its allies, with eight in 10 such voters voting for the NDA alliance. However, among those who were dissatisfied to some degree with the work done by the NDA, a significant portion voted for the INDIA bloc or other opposition parties. This cumulative dissatisfaction with key issues ultimately tipped the scales against the BJP, explaining the drop in vote share and seats in these elections.
