The 2024 US presidential election is shaping up to be one of the closest in recent history, with the outcome potentially hinging on a rather unexpected factor: the weather. As the race tightens in key swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, rain and snow could have a significant impact on voter turnout, potentially benefiting Republican nominee Donald Trump.
While weather may not seem like a major factor in elections, research suggests otherwise. A 2007 study, titled ‘The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout, and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections’, found a correlation between rainfall and snowfall and increased Republican vote share. The study, conducted by Professors Brad T Gomez, Thomas G Hansford, and George A Krause, concluded that for every inch of rain above the normal level on Election Day, the Republican presidential candidate received approximately 2.5% more votes. The effect was even more pronounced for snowfall, with Republicans receiving around 6% more votes for every inch of snow.
The study’s authors pointed to historical examples where weather played a significant role in election outcomes. In the 1960 election, they argue that favorable weather likely benefited John F. Kennedy, the Democratic candidate. Conversely, in the 2000 election, they suggest that dry weather might have propelled Al Gore to victory in Florida, ultimately altering the outcome.
With the 2024 election poised to be incredibly close, particularly in the battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, the Trump campaign has highlighted voter turnout as a crucial factor. A senior advisor to CNN noted that if all those who intend to vote for Trump do so, then Trump “ought to win.” If the weather worsens, the Democrats’ turnout might be impacted, potentially giving Trump a boost.
However, the record-breaking early voting numbers, with a significant portion of voters likely Democrats, could mitigate the potential effects of weather. Many voters who would have been deterred by poor weather conditions might have already cast their ballots.
The election analytical outlet 538’s final forecast suggests that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has a 61% chance of winning Michigan and a 59% chance of winning Wisconsin. She is currently tied with Trump in Nevada.
While the impact of weather on voter turnout remains to be seen, its potential influence on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election cannot be ignored. As the nation waits with bated breath for the results, the weather forecast might just hold the key to victory.
