The 137th staging of Wimbledon has begun, with the first-round matches kicking off. Who are the favorites, the spoilers, the sure bets, the wild cards? Let’s delve into the women’s tournament first.
If men’s tennis was, until recently, dominated by the so-called Big Three (Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, with only the latter still playing), the women’s tennis world seems to be slowly solidifying into its own Big Three, with some combination of Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff, and Aryna Sabalenka dominating most tournaments. Swiatek, however, is in a league of her own lately, winning 45 of the 49 matches she’s played this year and coming off her French Open victory. She appears utterly indomitable, except for Wimbledon, where she’s never gotten past the quarterfinals. Will this be the year she breaks the spell? Nobody knows, but Swiatek faces unseeded American Sofia Kenin in the first round, a potential giant-killer who knocked Gauff out last year. If she gets past Kenin, she could face her nemesis, Jelena Ostapenko, in the fourth round. Swiatek is 0-4 against Ostapenko.
Fourth-seeded Elena Rybakina won Wimbledon two years ago, but a repeat seems unlikely due to recent illness. This brings us to Sabalenka and Gauff. Sabalenka has moved beyond her inconsistency and is reaching major semifinals consistently, but she pulled out of her final Wimbledon warmup with a shoulder issue. If that was precautionary, watch out for her, but if it was anything significant, it’ll be a struggle. (Unseeded Emma Raducanu, who’s been on a roll, is a potential spoiler.)
That leaves Gauff, seeded second, who’s made the semis at this year’s two previous majors and appears to have a favorable draw. Barring an upset, her path to the fourth round seems secure, but there she could face four-time Grand Slam champion Naomi Osaka, who’s been looking formidable in her comeback. Assuming Swiatek makes it to the final (something that’s never happened) and the seeds play as expected (which they rarely do), she’d play the winner of Sabalenka and Gauff for the title. If that happens, we’re in for a barnburner.
As for the men, this Wimbledon marks Carlos Alcaraz’s first major as the world’s reigning number-one player, and he seems ready to dominate. However, he has a potential threat as early as the second round in Matteo Berrettini, unseeded and ranked 65th after foot surgery, but always dangerous on grass. Fifth-seeded Daniil Medvedev, also in Alcaraz’s quarter, will likely have to get through Gregor Dimitrov.
It’s tough to see Alcaraz, the defending champion, having much trouble until the round of 16 or even the quarterfinals, but he didn’t make it past the second round of the Queen’s Club Championships, the traditional grass-court Wimbledon warmup, a few weeks ago. If we’re playing this out, Alcaraz would likely meet Norway’s Casper Ruud (fresh from winning the French Open) or American Tommy Paul, and while Ruud’s eighth seed would seem to trump Paul’s 12th seed, we’re calling this one for the American due to his relative prowess on grass.
There are other players, like Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev, capable of a surprise winning streak, but the true wild card is the second-seeded legend Novak Djokovic. Three weeks after surgery on his knee, the seven-time Wimbledon champion, now 37, will return looking for an eighth title here and another notch in his record 24-major-titles career. Djokovic’s early matches seem like walks in the park, but come quarterfinal time, Poland’s Hubert Hurkacz, seeded seventh, may present a real challenge (assuming Hurkacz gets by Andy Murray, playing his last tournament at the All England Club).
As for who takes whom in the Sinner-Alcaraz-Djokovic sweepstakes, that’s why we watch tennis. Any combination of the above is capable of producing another classic. We’ll take Sinner to win it all.
