The world is on a collision course with a catastrophic temperature rise, with a new UN report painting a stark warning: without significantly stronger climate commitments from governments, the planet is set to warm by a staggering 3.1°C this century. This alarming projection more than doubles the 1.5°C limit set by the Paris Agreement, a threshold designed to keep the world on a safe climate trajectory.
The UNEP’s latest Emissions Gap report reveals that current commitments for 2030 are woefully inadequate. Even if these pledges are fully met, the temperature rise would still be capped at a dangerous 2.6 to 2.8°C. This grim reality underscores the urgency for immediate and drastic action.
“Climate crunch time is here. We need global mobilisation on a scale and pace never seen before – starting right now, before the next round of climate pledges – or the 1.5°C goal will soon be dead and well below 2°C will take its place in the intensive care unit,” warns Inger Andersen, UNEP’s executive director. “I urge every nation: no more hot air, please. Use the upcoming talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, to increase action now, set the stage for stronger NDCs, and then go all-out to get on a 1.5°C pathway.”
The report highlights a massive emissions gap, a stark discrepancy between the actions needed and the commitments made. However, bridging this gap is not an impossible feat. Under the Paris Agreement, countries are obligated to submit updated NDCs every five years, outlining their strategies for curbing national emissions to keep global warming below 1.5°C. The next round of NDCs is due in February, with many countries, including the US and UK, indicating their new pledges will be announced at COP29 or shortly after.
UNEP’s calculations reveal the scale of the challenge: nations must collectively reduce their annual greenhouse gas emissions by 42 per cent by 2030 and 57 per cent by 2035 to maintain any hope of achieving the 1.5°C goal. Failure to meet these targets will render the 1.5°C objective unattainable within a few years. The Paris Agreement’s overarching objective is to limit global temperature increase to “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and strive to limit it to 1.5°C. To stay within the 2°C limit, UNEP states that emissions must decline by 28 per cent by 2030 and 37 per cent from 2019 levels by 2035. This new milestone year will be included in the upcoming round of NDCs.
“Even if the world overshoots 1.5°C – and the chances of this happening are increasing every day – we must keep striving for a net-zero, sustainable and prosperous world,” Andersen emphasizes. “Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved and the ability to rapidly bring down any temperature overshoot.”
The report outlines a clear path toward achieving the 1.5°C goal: reducing CO2 equivalent emissions by 31 gigatonnes in 2030 (approximately half of global emissions in 2023) and 41 gigatonnes in 2035. This ambitious target is technically feasible, but it requires a concerted global effort.
The report underlines the critical role of renewable energy in this endeavor. UNEP finds that scaling up solar and wind energy technologies could contribute 27 per cent of the total reduction potential in 2030 and a significant 38 per cent in 2035. Protecting forests, meanwhile, has the potential to account for around 20 per cent of the emissions reductions in both years. The report also highlights the importance of energy efficiency improvements and transitions to cleaner fuels in sectors such as buildings, transportation, and industry.
Delivering on even a portion of these potential emissions cuts will require unprecedented global mobilization. Countries must adopt a “whole-of-government approach” to achieving their climate goals. The G20 nations, responsible for approximately 80 per cent of global emissions, bear a significant responsibility to drive this transformation.
“Today’s Emissions Gap report is clear: we’re playing with fire; but there can be no more playing for time,” emphasizes UN Secretary-General António Guterres. “Closing the emissions gap means closing the ambition gap, the implementation gap, and the finance gap. Starting at COP29.”