Despite Patrick Corbin’s lackluster performance, bookmakers still haven’t fully adjusted their odds to reflect his current struggles. Corbin, who has allowed an alarming 1.62 hits per inning and owns an 8.06 ERA, will face the potent Los Angeles Dodgers lineup once again on Tuesday night at Nationals Park.
In his previous outing against the Dodgers, Corbin’s stat line was abysmal, allowing five earned runs on nine hits and facing hard contact 67% of the time. His opponents have feasted on pitches within the strike zone since the start of the 2022 season, hitting .351 against him. This is the worst mark among MLB starters who have thrown more than 130 innings in that span.
While the Dodgers’ 13-11 record may be underwhelming, their offensive production remains impressive. They average 5.17 runs per game and have a wRC+ of 116, the third-best xwOBA in baseball at .344. Bettors are heavily backing the Dodgers to score at least 2.5 runs in the first five innings or 5.5 runs overall against Corbin.
Meanwhile, James Paxton, who will start for the Nationals, also faces regression concerns. His xFIP of 6.03, xERA of 5.12, and poor K/BB ratio suggest that his ERA, currently at 4.02, is likely to rise. Paxton’s ability to strand 89.3% of base runners and induce a low .190 batting average on balls in play has masked some of his underlying flaws, but these trends are unlikely to continue.
Given Corbin’s struggles and Paxton’s due regression, betting on the first five innings to go over 5.5 runs may offer the most value, rather than simply backing the Dodgers to score against Corbin.
