The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House has cast a shadow over NATO’s efforts to support Ukraine in its war against Russia. The alliance is facing a race against time to secure long-term aid for Ukraine before the US presidential election, fearing that a Trump presidency could severely curtail support for Kyiv.
Trump’s history of criticizing US military aid for Ukraine and his past suggestions to end the war through concessions from Ukraine have raised concerns among NATO members. A Trump administration could potentially pressure Ukraine to bow to Russian demands in peace talks, potentially leading to a reduction in US funding and military assistance. This could also put pressure on other NATO members to contribute more to Ukraine’s defense, particularly those with smaller economies.
In response to these concerns, NATO is actively working to ensure Ukraine’s long-term security. The alliance has signed long-term agreements to guarantee continued military support and training for Ukraine. A new command dedicated to supporting Ukraine, staffed by personnel from various countries, is also being established. Furthermore, NATO members are increasing their defense spending, with many expected to meet the 2% GDP commitment by 2024. This commitment was only met by six countries before the Russia-Ukraine war. These efforts, collectively dubbed ‘Trump-proofing’, aim to ensure that Ukraine’s defense remains robust regardless of the outcome of the US election.
Ukraine is also taking proactive measures to bolster its own defense capabilities. A sophisticated drone industry is being developed, and more weapons are being produced domestically. Ukraine is also opening a small office in Washington to strengthen its ties to the US defense industry. These measures are aimed at ensuring that Ukraine can provide more of its own defense needs, regardless of external support.
Recognizing the potential shift in US policy, Ukraine is also reaching out to the Republican party. Officials are building bridges to the Republican establishment, attempting to secure support for Ukraine’s defense regardless of who wins the US election. This proactive approach reflects the significant uncertainty surrounding the potential impact of a Trump presidency on Ukraine’s war efforts. The stakes are high, and NATO and Ukraine are working tirelessly to secure the future of Ukraine’s defense, hoping to navigate the potential challenges posed by a Trump administration.
