Shanghai has expanded its foreign currency exchange services to all 16 districts, including airports, hotels, and commercial areas. The city is aiming to provide convenient and diverse exchange options for international visitors, with a network of franchised institutions, agencies, ATMs, and self-service machines. Shanghai also offers digital RMB services and accepts a wide range of currencies, including those from countries along the Belt and Road initiative.
The European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest report highlights a decline in the euro’s share in foreign exchange holdings. In 2023, the euro’s share dropped to 20%, driven by factors such as the rising popularity of the US dollar, Japanese yen, and other non-traditional reserve currencies. The ECB also notes that the Swiss National Bank has significantly reduced its euro-denominated reserves. Despite rising interest rates in the eurozone, the currency’s attractiveness has not improved due to higher rates in other regions and the eurozone’s muted economic prospects. The report also expresses concerns about Russia’s plans to reduce its euro stockpile, which could further impact the currency’s status in global foreign exchange reserves.
India’s strategic procurement of Russian crude and lower international oil prices have resulted in significant savings of over $25 billion in foreign exchange reserves during the financial year 2023-24. This saving is despite importing similar quantities of crude oil as in the previous year, according to government data.
Market concerns about the possibility of yen intervention are dismissed by ING, as the firm points out that a lack of buyers in the face of intervention fears leads to fewer sellers as the USD/JPY pair rises.
The U.S. dollar recovered in early European trading on Wednesday after a decline in the previous session, with traders closely monitoring forthcoming economic data for indications of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy decisions.
The dollar’s recent slide was mostly attributed to data indicating a decline in U.S. business growth, with activity falling to a four-month low in April. However, hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have suggested that this particular data point is unlikely to result in rate cuts being moved forward to the summer.
Gross domestic product data for the first quarter and personal consumption price expenditures data, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, are expected to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively, and may trigger more significant market movements. The first Fed rate cut is generally anticipated to occur in September, with November being the second most likely month and June now considered unlikely.
In Europe, the euro gave up some of its gains from the previous session, while the pound fell after initially benefiting from positive data on UK business growth. The Bank of England is anticipated to lower interest rates by at least half a percentage point this year, while the European Central Bank has indicated a rate cut at its next policy meeting in June.
In Asia, the yen weakened, bringing USD/JPY closer to the 155 level, despite warnings from Japanese authorities about possible government intervention to support the currency. The Bank of Japan’s policy meeting on Friday will be closely watched for any shifts in its outlook on inflation and economic growth.
The EUR/USD currency pair has encountered resistance around the 38.2 Fib retracement level of its recent swing lower, located at 1.0709. This technical level, coupled with upcoming option expiries, could contribute to price action becoming more range-bound in the short term.
UBS has adjusted its outlook for the USD/JPY currency pair, attributing the change to the robust performance of the US dollar. The firm has increased its quarter-end predictions for the pair to ¥155 for June 2024, followed by ¥152, ¥148, and ¥145 for the subsequent quarters through March 2025. This revision comes as the market recalibrates its expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which have been scaled back significantly. Additionally, UBS notes that short positions in the yen have reached extreme levels, contributing to the dislocation of the USD/JPY pair.
Goldman Sachs has revised its foreign exchange forecasts, projecting a stronger US dollar against the euro and yen. Specifically, the bank anticipates the USD/JPY pair to rise to ¥155 within three months, maintain that level over the next three months, and decline to ¥150 within a year.
